This dissertation focuses on describing and explaining business cycle dynamics. Motivated by the extraordinary strong economic downturn in 2008/2009, it emphasis the importance of modeling nonlinearities. This thesis should be regarded as a contribution to applied econometrics and can be...

Dieser Beitrag gibt einen Überblick über aktuelle Forschungsprojekte des Instituts für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), die sich alle auf unterschiedliche Weise mit der Behebung von Problemen mit Missing Data befassen. Hierzu gehören einerseits Projekte, die Stichproben verwenden wie...

We propose a new Bayesian VAR model for forecasting household loan stocks in Finland. The model is designed to work as a satellite model of a larger DSGE model for the Finnish economy, the Aino 2.0 model. The forecasts produced with the BVAR model can be conditioned on projections of several...

Durch Bereitstellung von Krediten tragen Banken zur Transformation von Finanzkapital in Sachkapital bei. Die Kreditvergabepolitik der Schweizer Banken hat sich im vergangenen Vierteljahrhundert stark gewandelt. Basierend auf einem Datensatz (1987-2012) mit bankengruppenspezifischen Bilanzdaten...

This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of...

In this paper we provide an overview of the growth model in China and its prospects, taking a medium-run to long-run perspective. Our main conclusions are as follows. First, the still prevailing producer-biased model of managed capitalism in China tends to engender, as an inherent byproduct,...

Die deutschen Großstädte sind aktuell im Wachstumsmodus. Hohe Wanderungssalden aus dem In- und Ausland tragen zu einer positiven Bevölkerungsentwicklung bei. Diese Entwicklung setzt sich auch in der Zukunft fort. Die in diesem Beitrag vorgestellten stochastischen Bevölkerungsprognosen für...

Postal service volumes have diminished and the profitability of postal and courier activities has weakened in Finland in recent years. The study evaluates the development of the service volumes, profitability and employment of postal and courier activities until 2020. The distribution volumes of...

There are over 3 billion searches globally on Google every day. This report examines whether Google search queries can be used to predict the present and the near future unemployment rate in Finland. Predicting the present and the near future is of interest, as the official records of the state...

The share of private consumption in gross domestic product is significant; therefore, private consumption has a great influence on economic growth, which makes it a major concept in economics. The purpose of the paper is to estimate and evaluate different forecasting models for private...