From 2013 up to the launch of the ECB's strategy review in January 2020, inflation in the euro area was low and over-predicted. This low inflation during the years 2013-19 can be attributed to a combination of interconnected factors. Cyclical developments account for a substantial share of the...

Das vorliegende Handbuch soll einen Überblick über die Befragungen des ifo Instituts sowie die daraus resultierenden Konjunkturindikatoren und deren Verwendung für die Prognose volkswirtschaftlicher Kennzahlen liefern. Des Weiteren ist es als Interpretationshilfe für den Umgang mit den...

In this paper, we estimate a potential output model for Finland using an unobserved component model. The model builds on a production function approach, and features price and wage Phillips curves, Okun’s law and several resource-utilization indicators. We show that incorporating...

The European Central Bank (ECB) carried out a study of the social and private costs of different payment instruments with the participation of 13 national central banks in the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). It shows that the costs to society of providing retail payment services are...

In parts of the German media, with the support of a number of German economists, the ECB’s low nominal interest rate policy is criticised as unnecessary, ineffective and as expropriating the German saver. This paper provides a review of the relevant arguments. It is recalled that returns on...

Using a wide range of models we document a protracted fall in the natural (or neutral) rate of interest in advanced economies, driven by ageing, waning productivity growth, a rise in mark-ups, and a surge in risk aversion in the wake of the global financial crisis. While our neutral rate...

This paper discusses the impact that a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) could have on the implementation of monetary policy. Monetary policy implementation could be affected if the introduction of the retail CBDC changes the volume of commercial bank deposits held by customers, which...

This paper contributes to the ongoing debate about the changing dynamics in the money market rates after 2007. It aims to analyse the interest rate channel of monetary policy transmission until the federal funds target rate reached the zero lower bound. A set of different model explains both...

This paper aims to devise a monetary policy instrument rule that is suitable for open economies undergoing monetary convergence to a common currency area. The open-economy convergence-consistent Taylor rule is forward-looking, consistent with monetary framework based on inflation targeting,...