Current economic developments in Portugal do not portend well. The Portuguese GDP is shrinking and the growth forecast for 2012 is gloomy - in the EU only the forecast for Greece is even worse (Figure 1). Moreover, Portugal is now having to pay double-digit interest rates on its bonds, its debt...

This paper details the methodological framework underlying the construction of the effective exchange rate (EER) indicators of the euro. This framework yields two sets of indicators - (i) one nominal and several real EER indices against a narrow reference group of euro area trading partners...

In addition to its direct effects on the global trading and production structure, the ongoing process of globalisation may have important implications for the interaction of exchange rates and the overall economy. This paper presents evidence regarding possible changes in the role of exchange...

This study seeks to determine the extent to which countries of the former Soviet Union are infected” by the Dutch Disease. We take a detailed look at the functioning of the transmission mechanism of the Dutch Disease, i.e. the chains that run from commodity prices to real output in...

This paper reviews the main theories of interest rate determination and studies the dynamics of the real interest rate in US. Using cointegration techniques we search for equilibrium relationships between the real interest rate, monetary factors and real factors and we study how these...

This memo discusses effects of COVID-19 on interest rates through the lens of global movements in the natural real interest rate. While government spending and public debt issuance are likely to cause a rise in r*, r* may decline due to precautionary behaviour. The net effect is uncertain.

In parts of the German media, with the support of a number of German economists, the ECB’s low nominal interest rate policy is criticised as unnecessary, ineffective and as expropriating the German saver. This paper provides a review of the relevant arguments. It is recalled that returns on...

Greece, Portugal and Spain face a serious risk of external solvency due to their close to minus 100 percent of GDP net negative international investment positions, which are largely composed of debt. The perceived inability of these countries to rebalance their external positions is a major root...