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Possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, scenarios for sanctions, and likely economic impact on Russia, Ukraine and the EU
Astrov, Vasily; Grieveson, Richard; Kochnev, Artem; … - 2022
It remains unclear whether or not Russia will actually invade Ukraine, and if it does so, what form this invasion will … take. In this note, we outline two broad scenarios: targeted strikes by Russia in Ukraine accompanied by further non … sanctions on either Russian GDP or the FX rate. However, we find that Russia is extremely vulnerable to a reduction in the price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013178173
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Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Assessment of the humanitarian, economic and financial impact in the short and medium term
Astrov, Vasily; Ghodsi, Mahdi; Grieveson, Richard; … - 2022
the most severe economic and financial impact will be in Ukraine and Russia. Much of Ukraine is already devastated by the … the back of high energy prices. If the EU were to ban imports of energy from Russia, or if Russia itself limits or stops …, Russia and the rest of Europe has been changed radically by the events of the last few weeks. For Ukraine, if one part of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014374252
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Transnational governance in global finance - the principles for stable capital flows and fair debt restructuring in emerging markets
Ritter, Raymond - 2009
This paper analyses and assesses the track record and effectiveness of the so-called “Principles for Stable Capital Flows and Fair Debt Restructuring in Emerging Markets”,which have emerged as an important instrument for crisis prevention and crisis resolution in the international financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011606255
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What Is in the Name? Risk Assessment of Macedonia
Gligorov, Vladimir - 2008
This paper assesses the possible political and economic risks of Macedonia failing to be invited to join NATO in the near future due to a Greek embargo. Three possible outcomes of the current negotiations are discussed and some narrowing down of differences is noted. It may, however, not be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012100083
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The Iranian Economy: Challenges and Opportunities
Astrov, Vasily; Ghodsi, Mahdi; Grieveson, Richard; … - 2018
The Iranian economy has greatly benefited from the lifting of international sanctions in 2016, when the JCPOA nuclear deal came into force. Oil production and exports rebounded strongly, which spilled over into non-oil sectors. However, the economy is yet to return to its 1976 peak in real per...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012100165
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What Remains of the Theory of Demand Management in a Globalising World?
Bhaduri, Amit - 2013
The paper explains a curious redirection of economic policies that uses the policy framework of Kalecki and Keynes only to undermine it. It does not negate their theory of demand management, but reformulates it to serve the powerful interests of finance in the era of financial globalisation. As...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012100219
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Economic Consequences of the Ukraine Conflict
Havlik, Peter - 2014
The Ukraine conflict is having serious consequences not only for Russia and Ukraine, but it also potentially threatens … may decline by up to 8% this year. In Russia, the costs of the conflict are estimated to be in the tune of 1% of GDP in … market. For the EU as a whole, there are five industries where the share of Russia in total exports exceeds 3% textiles …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012100221
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Economic challenges and costs of reintegrating the Donbas region in Ukraine
Havlik, Peter; Kochnev, Artem; Pindyuk, Olga - 2020
This study provides a systematic assessment of the costs of the ongoing armed conflict in the Donbas region of Ukraine. By combining the pre-war geographical distribution of fixed capital with data on battle intensity, survey evidence on household damage in the conflict-affected areas and novel...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012262804
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Wirtschaftliche Folgen des Ukraine-Krieges: Zunehmende Belastungen für die deutsche Wirtschaft
Bardt, Hubertus; Grömling, Michael; Schmitz, Edgar - 2022
Der durch den russischen Überfall ausgelöste Krieg in der Ukraine bringt erhebliche Belastungen für die deutsche Wirtschaft mit sich. Auf Basis verschiedener laufender Befragungen durch das Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft werden die verschiedenen Auswirkungen vermessen. Rund drei Viertel...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013166458
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Wirtschaftliche Effekte des Krieges in der Ukraine: Ausgangslage und Übertragungswege
Grömling, Michael - 2022
Der Krieg in der Ukraine schafft neue und verschärft bestehende Anpassungslasten für die gesamte Volkswirtschaft. Im folgenden Beitrag werden Orientierungspunkte für die ökonomischen Auswirkungen des Krieges auf die deutsche Wirtschaft aufgezeigt. Diese Effekte hängen von den politischen...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013174500