effects, i.e., it is possible that the structure of the volatility surface changes without a change in the volatility level … state, I show that this superior performance is directly linked to a third volatility factor which is unrelated to the … volatility level. The second chapter studies the price of the smile, which is defined as the premia for individual option risk …

-commodity price covariance, procyclical interest rates, negative price of exchange rate volatility, and countercyclical currency risk … target rates from the OIS prices to predict the outcome of monetary policy meetings around the world. In the US, a randomly … zukünftigen Zielzinssätze aus den OIS-Preisen, um das Ergebnis der geldpolitischen Gremien auf der ganzen Welt vorherzusagen. In …