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-commodity price covariance, procyclical interest rates, negative price of exchange rate volatility, and countercyclical currency risk … 0.5% before policy rate increases. We show that available fixed income instruments allow to forecast monetary policy … policy forecast rule. Our results thus pose a major challenge for the risk-based explanations of the exchange rate dynamics …
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Es liegt in der Verantwortung von ökonomischen Entscheidungsträgern, Entscheidungen unter Unsicherheit zu treffen. Finanzmarktunsicherheit kann ökonomische Aktivität negativ beeinflussen. In diesem Sinn können Prognosen theoretisch einen ökonomischen Mehrwert liefern. Diese kumulative...
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Recent theoretical developments in exchange rate economics have led to important new insights into the functioning of the foreign exchange market. The simple models of the 1970s, which could not withstand empirical evaluation, have been succeeded by more complex models that draw on theoretical...
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