Die vorliegende Dissertation befasst sich mit probabilistischen Prognosen, die seit einigen Jahren ein aktives ökonometrisches Forschungsgebiet darstellen. Da solche Prognosen eine vollständige Verteilung für die interessierende Zufallsvariable angeben, beinhalten sie Information über...

The performance and economic value of public outlook forecasts has been of continuing interest to agricultural economists and market participants. This dissertation provide new and powerful evidence on the performance of outlook forecasts relative to futures prices in hog and cattle markets over...

This dissertation presents two essays on Markov-Switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. The first essay is "Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching Models," which is co-authored with Juan Rubio-Ramirez, Dan Waggoner, and Tao Zha. This essay develops an perturbation-based...

This dissertation consists of six self-contained chapters that are related to the behavior of firms and politicians in a broader sense. After an introduction to the topic, the first part of the dissertation elaborates on how institutional and political framework conditions influence the behavior...