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Four essays on probabilistic forecasting in econometrics
Krüger, Fabian - 2013
Die vorliegende Dissertation befasst sich mit probabilistischen Prognosen, die seit einigen Jahren ein aktives ökonometrisches Forschungsgebiet darstellen. Da solche Prognosen eine vollständige Verteilung für die interessierende Zufallsvariable angeben, beinhalten sie Information über...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010243223
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Management cybernetics: Computer simulation models of operational management organizations
Alshawi, S - 1986
Cybernetics is the science of effective organization, i.e. the science that describes the general principles of growth, learning and adaptation in complex, dynamical systems.Stafford Beer regards his viable system model as a design for effective formal organization. He also declares that since...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009465602
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Making Forecasts for Chaotic Processes in the Presence of Model Error
Danforth, Christopher M - 2006
Numerical weather forecast errors are generated by model deficiencies and by errors in the initial conditions which interact and grow nonlinearly. With recent progress in data assimilation, the accuracy in the initial conditions has been substantially improved so that accounting for systematic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009450747
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Socio-Technical Transition as a Co-Evolutionary Process: Innovation and the Role of Niche Markets in the Transition to Motor Vehicles
Birky, Alicia Kim - 2008
Significant reductions in greenhouse emissions from personal transportation will require a transition to an alternative technology regime based on renewable energy sources. Two bodies of research, the quasi-evolutionary (QE) model and the multi-level perspective (MLP) assert that processes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009450609
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Addressing issues in sparseness, ecological bias and formulation of the adjacency matrix in Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of disease counts
Earnest, Arul - 2010
The main objective of this PhD was to further develop Bayesian spatio-temporal models (specifically the Conditional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009438128
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Statistical methods for assessing and managing wild populations
Hoyle, Simon David - 2005
modelling to integrated Bayesian modelling using MCMC, via bootstrapping and stochastic simulation. It also covers a broad range … harvest rate. Our approach uses individual-based modeling and Bayesian analysis to investigate the effect of shadows on … statistical model, and estimates parameters using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian MCMC.The sixth chapter (Hoyle 2002, peer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009438291
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ICT and economic growth: a dynamic non-parametric approach
Wang, Bin - 2010
new framework uses Bayesian technique, one-stage approach and non-parametric frontiers to avoid these three drawbacks. In …-parametric dynamic stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) models with an AR(1) structure and performed the analysis via Bayesian inference …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009461080
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LOF of logistic GEE models and cost efficient Bayesian optimal designs for nonlinear combinations of parameters in nonlinear regression models
Tang, Zhongwen - 2008
this stage will lead to efficient usage of limited resources. We proposed a cost efficient Bayesian optimal design method …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009464058
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Bayesian-lopa methodology for risk assessment of an LNG importation terminal
Mannan, M. Sam (contributor) - 2007
data from the LNG industry are very sparse. Bayesian estimation isidentified as one method to compensate for its weaknesses …. It can update the generic datawith plant specific data.Based on Bayesian estimation, the frequencies of initiating events …-PFDconversion method was used instead. By the combination of Bayesian estimation andLOPA procedures, the Bayesian-LOPA methodology was …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009464978