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Die vorliegende Dissertation befasst sich mit probabilistischen Prognosen, die seit einigen Jahren ein aktives ökonometrisches Forschungsgebiet darstellen. Da solche Prognosen eine vollständige Verteilung für die interessierende Zufallsvariable angeben, beinhalten sie Information über...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010243223
Cybernetics is the science of effective organization, i.e. the science that describes the general principles of growth, learning and adaptation in complex, dynamical systems.Stafford Beer regards his viable system model as a design for effective formal organization. He also declares that since...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009465602
Numerical weather forecast errors are generated by model deficiencies and by errors in the initial conditions which interact and grow nonlinearly. With recent progress in data assimilation, the accuracy in the initial conditions has been substantially improved so that accounting for systematic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009450747
Significant reductions in greenhouse emissions from personal transportation will require a transition to an alternative technology regime based on renewable energy sources. Two bodies of research, the quasi-evolutionary (QE) model and the multi-level perspective (MLP) assert that processes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009450609
The main objective of this PhD was to further develop Bayesian spatio-temporal models (specifically the Conditional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009438128
modelling to integrated Bayesian modelling using MCMC, via bootstrapping and stochastic simulation. It also covers a broad range … harvest rate. Our approach uses individual-based modeling and Bayesian analysis to investigate the effect of shadows on … statistical model, and estimates parameters using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian MCMC.The sixth chapter (Hoyle 2002, peer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009438291
In this thesis we address problems associated with financial modelling from a Bayesian point of view. Specifically, we … Bayesian model average price. In tests on local volatility models it is shown that this price is closer than the prices of … measures from the latter class are provided using the Bayesian posterior. These are used to value the model uncertainty for a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009441418
xi, 87 p. : ill. A print copy of this thesis is available through the UO Libraries. Search the library catalog for the location and call number.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009447381
data from the LNG industry are very sparse. Bayesian estimation isidentified as one method to compensate for its weaknesses …. It can update the generic datawith plant specific data.Based on Bayesian estimation, the frequencies of initiating events …-PFDconversion method was used instead. By the combination of Bayesian estimation andLOPA procedures, the Bayesian-LOPA methodology was …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009464978