This paper estimates the Brazilian Nairu (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) and investigates several empirical questions: the behavior of Nairu along time, error bands for Nairu and the usefulness of Nairu to the conduct of monetary policy in Brazil. There are many recent studies...

Johansen (2002) suggests a counterfactual experiment that can be implemented in the vector autoregressive model to interpret the coefficients of an identified cointegrating relation. This article proposes an alternative counterfactual experiment ("design of experiment") that, contrary to the one...

This paper estimates the Brazilian NAILO (Nonaccelerating Inflation Level of Output), obtains (Bayesian) probability bands for the Nailo and for its growth rate, and investigates the relationship between deviations of output with respect to the Nailo and the acceleration of inflation. As...

This paper investigates the effect of monetary and exchange rate shocks on disaggregated prices of the Brazilian Consumer Price Index (IPCA), from 1999 to 2011. We analyze the results of a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (Favar), which are presented by different levels of...

The evaluation of forecasts performance of market expectations about the Brazilian inflation rate (Focus survey) is important given the prominent role of these expectations in the conduction of monetary policy in Brazil. Lima e Céspedes (2006) showed that, in the period 2000.1 2005.4, several...