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Im Laufe des Jahres 1993 war die Metallgesellschaft Refining & Marketing (MGRM), eine US-amerikanische Tochtergesellschaft der Metallgesellschaft AG, in großem Umfang die Verpflichtung eingegangen, langfristig Öl zu Festpreisen zu liefern. Das dadurch entstehende Preisrisiko sollte über...
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and ten years of daily data. Our work addresses price behaviour following new entry signals by studying whether, for short … market (long or short). For example, we want to know how long we should hold or delay a trade before the price is expected to …
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-induced price adjustments are found to be driven by systematic speculative behaviour and are determined to be significant. …
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The paper contributes to the rare literature modeling term structure of crude oil markets. We explain term structure of crude oil prices using dynamic Nelson-Siegel model, and propose to forecast them with the generalized regression framework based on neural networks. The newly proposed...
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Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information … has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the … market expectation of the price of the underlying asset. Although this expectation in principle may be recovered by adjusting …
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We revisit the question whether commodities should be included in investors' portfolios. We employ for the first time a stochastic dominance efficiency (SDE) approach to construct optimal portfolios with and without commodities and we evaluate their comparative performance. SDE circumvents the...
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