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prices. We empirically assess efficiency gains in volatility estimation when using range-based estimators as opposed to … simple daily ranges and explore the use of these more efficient volatility measures as predictors of daily ranges. The array … forecasts are produced by a realized range based HAR model with a GARCH volatility-of-volatility component. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010461231
the variance matrix. Monte Carlo evidence for parameter estimation based on different small sample sizes is provided. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011520881
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012137575
The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this … paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility …, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week effects, leverage effects and volatility level effects. Applying the model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011335205
Accurate prediction of the frequency of extreme events is of primary importance in many financialapplications such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis. We propose a semi-parametric method for VaRevaluation. The largest risks are modelled parametrically, while smaller risks are captured by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010533206
Forecasting-volatility models typically rely on either daily or high frequency (HF) data and the choice between these … two categories is not obvious. In particular, the latter allows to treat volatility as observable but they suffer of many … forecasting-volatility models, comparing their performance (in terms of Value at Risk, VaR) under the assumptions of jumping …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011730304
This paper examines long memory volatility in international stock markets. We show that long memory volatility is … the cross-sectional dimension. We also find that developed countries possess longer memory in volatility than emerging and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011750751
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011707065
We consider the problem of testing for an omitted multiplicative long-term component in GARCH-type models. Under the alternative there is a two-component model with a short-term GARCH component that fluctuates around a smoothly time-varying long-term component which is driven by the dynamics of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011958200
improved ex-post volatility measurements but has also inspired research into their potential value as an informa-tion source … for longer horizon volatility forecasts. In this paper we explore the forecasting value of these high fre-quency series in … conjunction with a variety of volatility models for returns on the Standard & Poor's 100 stock index. We consider two so …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011326944