This paper proposes and discusses an instrumental variable estimator that can be of particular relevance when many instruments are available. Intuition and recent work (see, e.g., Hahn (2002)) suggest that parsimonious devices used in the construction of the final instruments, may provide...

Dependence among defaults both across assets and over time has proven to be an important characteristic of financial risk. A Bayesian approach to default rate estimation is proposed and illustrated using a prior distributions assessed from an experienced industry expert. Two extensions of the...

A Bayesian approach to default rate estimation is proposed and illustrated using a prior distribution assessed from an experienced industry expert. The principle advantage of the Bayesian approach is the potential for coherent incorporation of expert information - crucial when data are scarce or...

We express the idea of classical competition in a statistical equilibrium model, where the tendency for competition to equalize profit rates results in an exponential power (or Subbotin) distribution. The model supports and extends recent evidence on the Laplace distribution of growth rates in...

We use an information-theoretic approach to interpret Engle's (1982) and Bollerslev's (1986) GARCH model as a model for the motion in time of the expected conditional second power moment. This interpretation is used to show how these models may be generalized, if we use alternative measures of...

In Georgescu-Roegen's classical, though controversial discussion of entropy in relation to economics, the dualism of mechanical and subjective time plays a pivotal role. I argue that this fundamental distinction also inheres modern approaches to maximum entropy. Following Searle, I introduce the...

Recently, the maximum entropy principle has been applied to explain the evolution of complex non-equilibrium systems, such as the Earth system. I argue that it can also be fruitfully deployed to reconsider the classical treatment of entropy in economics by Georgescu-Roegen, if the growth of...

Statistical equilibrium denotes the distribution of wealth that can be achieved in the largest number of ways while satisfying a first moment constraint on the rate of growth in wealth portfolios. Maximizing entropy subject to a logarithmic constraint yields a power law distribution whose...

Children born at the end of the academic year have lower educational attainment, on average, than those born at the start of the academic year. Previous research shows that the difference is most pronounced early in pupils' school lives, but remains evident and statistically significant in...