Research in both economics and psychology suggests that, when agents predict the next value of a random series, they frequently exhibit two types of biases, which are called the gambler's fallacy (GF) and the hot hand fallacy (HHF). The gambler's fallacy is to expect a negative correlation in a...

In 2009, the G20 embarked on an ambitious financial regulatory reform agenda to address the fault lines that caused the global financial crisis. Although the global benefits are expected to outweigh the overall costs, these reforms could produce cross-border adverse spillover effects to...

Traditionally banks have used securitization for expanding credit and thus their profitability. It has been well documented that, at least before the 2008 crisis, many banks were keeping a high proportion of the securities that they created on their own balance-sheets. Those securities retained...

We study the formation of networks in environments where agents derive benefits from other agents directly linked to them but suffer losses through contagion when any agent on a path connected to them is hit by a shock. We first consider networks with undirected links (e.g. epidemics,...

We study the formation of networks in environments where agents derive benefits from other agents directly linked to them but suffer losses through contagion when any agent on a path connected to them is hit by a shock. We first consider networks with undirected links (e.g. epidemics,...

Previous work has investigated whether political instability has a negative effect on economic growth, with mixed results, largely because political instability can take various forms. Using synthetic control methodology, which constructs a counterfactual in the absence of political instability,...