the expected returns and expected dividend growth rates of the aggregate stock market. This approach aggregates … information contained in the history of price-dividend ratios and dividend growth rates to predict future returns and dividend … growth rates. We find that returns and dividend growth rates are predictable with R-squared values ranging from 8.2% to 8 …

-run mean of the aggregate dividend-price ratio, most notably since the 1970s. Adjusting the dividend-price ratio for such … changes resolves several issues with respect to the predictability of stock market returns: The adjusted dividend-price ratio … predictability ; dividend-price ratio ; payout policy ; sample selection ; choice of organizational structure …