In this paper, the relationship between macroeconomic fundamentals and asset prices is explored by estimating the impact of macroeconomic announcements in the Brazilian futures market. Using intraday data from October 2008 to January 2011, results show that external macroeconomic announcements...

The notion of the group of orthogonal matrices acting on the set of all feasible identification schemes is used to characterize the identification problem arising in structural vector autoregressions. This approach presents several conceptual advantages. First, it provides a fundamental...

Researchers seldom find evidence of I(2) in exchange rates, prices, and other macroeconomics time series when they test the order of integration using univariate Dickey-Fuller tests. In contrast, when using the multivariate ML trace test we frequently find double unit roots in the data. Our...

Recent developments allow a nonparametric separation of the continuous sample path component and the jump component of realized volatility. The jump component has very different time series properties than the continuous component, and accounting for this allows improved forecasting of future...

We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...

We investigate the causal structure of financial systems by accounting for contemporaneous relationships. To identify structural parameters, we introduce a novel non-parametric approach that exploits the fact that most financial data empirically exhibit heteroskedasticity. The identification...

We propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach for conducting inference on probabilistic surveys. We use this approach to study whether U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters density projections for output growth and inflation are consistent with the noisy rational expectations hypothesis. We...

Several economic data series of Liechtenstein are backwardly estimated in order to achieve consistent historic time series. The generated series consist for instance of the national income for the years 1954 to 1992 (by regressive inter- and retropolation with indicators) and 1993 to 1997 (by...

We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...

The notion of the group of orthogonal matrices acting on the set of all feasible identification schemes is used to characterize the identification problem arising in structural vector autoregressions. This approach presents several conceptual advantages. First, it provides a fundamental...