The narrative approach to macroeconomic identification uses qualitative sources, such as newspapers or government records, to provide information that can help establish causal relationships. This paper discusses the requirements for rigorous narrative analysis using fresh research on the impact...

In this paper, we estimate the effect of temperature shocks on the price of nine vegetables with a high contribution to Mexico's non core inflation. We utilize monthly panel data of the price index of each vegetable at the city level which we combine with high resolution weather data of the...

In this paper, the natural rate of interest in Denmark, Norway and Sweden are estimated. This is done by augmenting the Laubach and Williams (2003) framework with a dynamic factor model linked to economic indicators - a modelling choice which allows us to better identify business cycle...

We assess the bivariate relation between money growth and inflation in the euro area and the United States using hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models. Model selection based on marginal likelihoods suggests that the relation is statistically unstable across time in both regions. The...

Using unique account-level data from a high inflation period in Estonia in 2005-11 and interactive fixed effect estimation, we find individual consumption to depend on personal beyond national headline inflation. Foreign shocks to selected goods’ inflation affect disproportionately households...

Central bankers are raising interest rates on the assumption that wage-push inflation may lead to stagflation. This is not the case. Although unemployment is low, the labor market is not 'tight'. On the contrary, we show that what matters for wage growth are the non-employment rate and the...

This paper studies the price and employment response of firms to the introduction of a nation-wide minimum wage in Germany. Widely throughout the economy, affected firms responded by rapidly and frequently increasing prices without cutting employment. These decisions are strongly interrelated:...

This paper shows that there is a very large difference between the official measured inflation rate with its basket of 650 types of goods and perceived inflation in Germany. While the inflation rate in Germany was 10.0% in September 2022 and 10.4% in October, a nationwide survey revealed that...

We document empirical regularities of disaggregated inflation and consumption and study whether multisectoral New Keynesian models can explain them. We focus on higher moments of the inflation and consumption growth distributions as well as on the contemporaneous comovement of these two...

We analyze the impact of shifts in the industrial composition of the economy on the distribution of the frequency of price change and its consequences for the slope of the Phillips curve for the United States. By combining product-level microdata on the frequency of price change with data on...