Showing 1 - 10 of 14,860
limited to short-term predictions, the value of Google data for forecasting purposes is episodic, and the improvements in …Data on Google searches help predict the unemployment rate in the U.S. But the predictive power of Google searches is … forecasting accuracy are only modest. The results, obtained by (pseudo) out-of-sample forecast comparison, are robust to a state …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037588
have been shown to improve forecasting models for various economic and financial series. In the aftermath of the global … financial crisis, modeling and forecasting mortgage demand and subsequent approvals have become a central issue in the banking … variables - with their extensions utilizing online searches on Google. We find that the extended models better explain the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012030090
We suggest the use of an Internet job-search indicator (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict … the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our … in comparison with the Survey of Professional Forecasters. -- Google Econometrics ; Forecast Comparison ; Keyword Search …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008702857
We suggest a theoretical basis for the comparative evaluation of forecasts. Instead of the general assumption that the data is generated from a stochastic model, we classify three stages of prediction experiments: pure non-stochastic prediction of given data, stochastic prediction of given data,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293709
as a pseudo real time forecasting exercise, i.e. due account is taken of the pattern of available monthly variables over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605021
have been shown to improve forecasting models for various economic and financial series. In the aftermath of the global … financial crisis, modeling and forecasting mortgage demand and subsequent approvals have become a central issue in the banking … variables - with their extensions utilizing online searches on Google. We find that the extended models better explain the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012063503
This paper deals with the estimation of employment equations for Germany, which are to be used for forecasting and …, however, is affected by German reunification and relative factor prices no longer play a significant role. The forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460436
We apply the boosting estimation method to investigate to what ex-tent and at what horizons macroeconomic time series have nonlinearpredictability coming from their own history. Our results indicate thatthe U.S. macroeconomic time series have more exploitable nonlinearpredictability than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503077
This paper deals with the estimation of employment equations for Germany, which are to be used for forecasting and …, however, is affected by German reunification and relative factor prices no longer play a significant role. The forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003744528
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011894733