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This paper presents a MIDAS type mixed frequency VAR forecasting model. First, we propose a general and compact mixed … frequency VAR framework using a stacked vector approach. Second, we integrate the mixed frequency VAR with a MIDAS type Almon … the resulting non-linear MIDAS type mixed frequency VAR into a linear equation system that can be easily estimated. A …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010508351
Building on a mixed data sampling (MIDAS) model we evaluate the predictive power of a variety of monthly macroeconomic … indicators for forecasting quarterly Chinese GDP growth. We iterate the evaluation over forecast horizons from 370 days to 1 day … 2009. Industrial production can be quite valuable for now- or even forecasting, but only if it is released shortly after …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420559
Building on a mixed data sampling (MIDAS) model we evaluate the predictive power of a variety of monthly macroeconomic … indicators for forecasting quarterly Chinese GDP growth. We iterate the evaluation over forecast horizons from 370 days to 1 day … 2009. Industrial production can be quite valuable for now- or even forecasting, but only if it is released shortly after …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010376402
GDP forecasters face tough choices over which leading indicators to follow and which forecasting models to use. To help …, Russia. Numerous useful indicators are identified and forecast pooling of three model classes (bridge models, MIDAS models … generally small, but for the period covering the Great Recession unrestricted mixed]frequency models and MIDAS models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011969268
GDP forecasters face tough choices over which leading indicators to follow and which forecasting models to use. To help …, Russia. Numerous useful indicators are identified and forecast pooling of three model classes (bridge models, MIDAS models … generally small, but for the period covering the Great Recession unrestricted mixed]frequency models and MIDAS models clearly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011793839
, MIxed DAta Sampling (MIDAS) models, mixed frequency VARs, and mixed frequency factor models. We also consider alternative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143818
) specifications and survey forecasts by optimally exploiting their properties. To do that, it compares the forecasting performance of …-term forecast horizons using both univariate and multivariate forecasting metrics. Results show that the Survey of Professional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012515464
) specifications and survey forecasts by optimally exploiting their properties. To do that, it compares the forecasting performance of …-term forecast horizons using both univariate and multivariate forecasting metrics. Results show that the Survey of Professional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012507233
as a pseudo real time forecasting exercise, i.e. due account is taken of the pattern of available monthly variables over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605021
In any dataset with individual forecasts of economic variables, some forecasters will perform better than others. However, it is possible that these ex post differences reflect sampling variation and thus overstate the ex ante differences between forecasters. In this paper, we present a simple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292810