Seit der Finanzkrise verfolgt die FED einen sehr expansiven geldpolitischen Kurs. Die Zinsen wurden auf historische Niedrigstniveaus gesenkt, darüber hinaus griff die FED auf verschiedene Maßnahmen quantitativer Lockerungen zurück. Trotz dieser Ereignisse zeigen die ökonometrischen Analysen...

This paper presents new composite leading indicators for the two largest of the EU accession countries, Poland and Hungary. Using linear and non-linear dynamic factor models we find for both countries that a parsimonious specification, which combines national business cycle indicators,series...

In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economicactivity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and withoutregime switching. The obtained optimal inferences of business cycle turningpoints indicate that the two-state regime switching procedure leads to...

In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economicactivity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and withoutregime switching. The obtained optimal inferences of business cycle turningpoints indicate that the two-state regime switching procedure leads to...

We analyze if and to what extent fundamental macroeconomic factors, temporary influences or more structural factors have contributed to the low levels of US bond yields over the last few years. For that purpose, we start with a general model of interest rate determination. The empirical part...

We analyze if and to what extent fundamental macroeconomic factors, temporary influences or more structural factors have contributed to the low levels of US bond yields over the last few years. For that purpose, we start with a general model of interest rate determination. The empirical part...

In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economic activity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and without regime switching. The obtainted optimal inferences of business cycle turning points indicate that the two-state rgime switching procedure leads to...