The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the economic impact mechanism of the secession of Great Britain from the European Union (Brexit) on the Hungarian economy, and to quantify the domestic growth risks. Several international studies have dealt with this topic using partial analysis and...

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the economic impact mechanism of the secession of Great Britain from the European Union (Brexit) on the Hungarian economy, and to quantify the domestic growth risks. Several international studies have dealt with this topic using partial analysis and...

Government agencies and other national and international institutions are asked to perform forecasts over the medium term. In particular, the EU Stability and Growth Pact contains the obligation to formulate stability programmes over four years, covering a general economic outlook as well as the...

Angesichts der globalen Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise ist die Unsicherheit über die zukünftige Entwicklung der deutschen Volkswirtschaft verglichen mit der Vergangenheit außerordentlich hoch. Langfristige Projektionen der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung sind heute nur unter erheblichem Aufwand...

This paper uses a two-step approach to characterize the evolution of US macroeconomic and financial variables during episodes of very high uncertainty. First, we identify episodes of very high uncertainty using a regime-switching model. Second, we assess the behaviour of macroeconomic and...

During the ongoing financial crisis the analysis of similar historical crises has gained more and more attention among economic researchers and forecasters. Existing studies, however, do not tackle the immense heterogeneity that is present in cross-country samples in a formal and consistent way....

Government agencies and other national and international institutions are asked to perform forecasts over the medium term. In particular, the EU Stability and Growth Pact contains the obligation to formulate stability programmes over four years, covering a general economic outlook as well as the...

Fiscal policy has become quite controversial in the post-Keynesian era, the debate over the Obama stimulus package being a contentious recent example. Some pundits go so far as to take the position that macroeconomic theory has failed to meaningfully progress in terms of providing useful...

In this paper, I estimate a series of long run reallocative shocks to sectoral employment using a stochastic volatility model of sectoral employment growth for the United States from 1960 through 2011. Reallocative shocks (which primarily measure construction and technology busts) have little...