forecasts and probabilistic prediction intervals for demographic parameters in addition. Age-sex specific population forecast …-specific population forecast using the cohort-component method. The consequence for the German pension system is discussed. To maintain …

, migration and mortality to forecast the population by age and sex. We specifically focus on quantifying the uncertainty of … forecast is quantified as prediction intervals for each subgroup. The underlying models for forecasting the demographic … likelihoods. The model is applied to forecast the population of Germany until 2040. The results indicate a larger future …