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hedging strategies, and assessing risk. Most investors estimate the stock-bond correlation simply by extrapolating the …Investors rely on the stock-bond correlation for a variety of tasks, such as forming optimal portfolios, designing … historical correlation of monthly returns and assume that this correlation best characterizes the correlation of future, annual …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012225162
Using a modified DCC-MIDAS specification that allows the long-term correlation component to be a function of multiple … explanatory variables, we show that the stock-bond correlation in the US, the UK, Germany, France, and Italy is mainly driven by … portfolios in terms of portfolio risk. While optimal daily weights minimize portfolio risk, we find that portfolio turnover and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011745369
We survey the nascent literature on machine learning in the study of financial markets. We highlight the best examples of what this line of research has to offer and recommend promising directions for future research. This survey is designed for both financial economists interested in grasping...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322889
The correlation between stock markets and interest rates has been discussed in numerous studies in the past, with … which allow for time-variability and regime changes in correlation. All estimated models allowing for timevarying … correlation complement each other in identifying time-varying patterns found in the (co-)movement between the variables …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009625556
components and the mixed-sign component load differently on economic information concerning stochastic correlation and jumps. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012116691
This paper aims to forecast the Market Risk premium (MRP) in the US stock market by applying machine learning …). Furthermore, Univariate ARMA and Exponential Smoothing models are also tested. The Market Risk Premium is defined as the … forecast the Market Risk Premium in a daily basis using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Second, it is not based on a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011454074
This paper analyzes the performance of temporal fusion transformers in forecasting realized volatilities of stocks listed in the S&P 500 in volatile periods by comparing the predictions with those of state-of-the-art machine learning methods as well as GARCH models. The models are trained on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013552533
This paper studies the predictability of ultra high-frequency stock returns and durations to relevant price, volume and transactions events, using machine learning methods. We find that, contrary to low frequency and long horizon returns, where predictability is rare and inconsistent,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362020
In this paper the relatively new technique of neural nets is integrated in a traditional model of portfolio choice. On the basis of Arrow’s State Preference Model the investment decision depends on the expectation building process which consists of two components. The individual information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781736
We consolidate alternative ways for identifying stable and stressful scenarios in the S&P 500 market to construct contagion tests for recipient markets vulnerable to disturbances from this source market. The S&P 500 is decomposed into discrete conditions of: (1) Tranquil versus turbulent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012156543