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Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno; Prokopczuk, Marcel; Wese Simen, … - 2017

We examine the pricing of tail risk in international stock markets. We find that the tail risk of different countries is highly integrated. Introducing a new World Fear index, we find that local and global aggregate market returns are mainly driven by global tail risk rather than local tail...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011751251

The decline in asset return predictability and macroeconomic volatility

Hsu, Alex; Palomino, Francisco; Qian, Charles - 2017

We document strong U.S. stock and bond return predictability from several macroeconomic volatility series before 1982 … policy and shocks with time-varying volatility. The decline is consistent with changes in both policy and shock dynamics …. While an increase in the response to inflation in the interest-rate policy rule decreases volatility, more persistent and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011709322

Why does return predictability concentrate in bad times?

Cujean, Julien; Hasler, Michael - 2017

We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is that investors use different forecasting models, and hence assess uncertainty differently. As economic conditions deteriorate, uncertainty rises and investors' opinions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011721618

Measuring macroeconomic tail risk

Marfè, Roberto; Pénasse, Julien - 2020 - This draft: June 16, 2020

This paper proposes a predictive approach to estimate macroeconomic tail risk dynamics over the long run (1876-2015). Our approach circumvents the scarcity of large macroeconomic crises by using observable predictive variables in a large international panel. This method does not require to use...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012233219

Comments on: Nonparametric tail risk, stock returns and the macroeconomy

Camponovo, Lorenzo; Scaillet, Olivier; Trojani, Fabio - 2016

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011518800

Four centuries of return predictability

Golez, Benjamin; Koudijs, Peter - 2017 - This version: January 30, 2017

We combine annual stock market data for the most important equity markets of the last four centuries: the Netherlands/U.K. (1629-1812), U.K. (1813-1870) and U.S. (1871-2015). We show that dividend yields are stationary and consistently forecast returns. The documented predictability holds for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011870101

Does wage rigidity make firms riskier? : evidence from long-horizon return predictability

Favilukis, Jack; Lin, Xiaoji - 2012

We explore the relationship between sticky wages and risk. Like operating leverage, sticky wages are a source of risk for the firm. Firms, industries, regions, or times with especially high or rigid wages are especially risky. If wages are sticky, then wage growth should negatively forecast...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009697776

Option-Implied Asymmetry and Market Returns

O'Sullivan, Conall; Wang, Yan - 2022

We propose a novel method to estimate risk-neutral quantiles that uses sorting to minimize an objective function given by a convex combination of call and put option prices over the range of available strike prices. We demonstrate that this new method significantly improves the accuracy of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236004

Dissecting characteristics nonparametrically

Freyberger, Joachim; Neuhierl, Andreas; Weber, Michael - 2018 - This version: July 2018

We propose a nonparametric method to study which characteristics provide incremental information for the cross section of expected returns. We use the adaptive group LASSO to select characteristics and to estimate how they affect expected returns nonparametrically. Our method can handle a large...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011888693

Empirical linkage between oil price and stock market returns and volatility : evidence from international developed markets

Dhaoui, Abderrazak; Khraief, Naceur - 2014

Singapore. On the volatility of returns, the changes in oil prices are significant for six markets and they have not much effect …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010257720

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