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International macroeconomic vulnerability
Velloso, João; Garcia, Márcio Gomes Pinto; Guillen, Diogo - 2022
We propose and implement an index of macroeconomic vulnerability to foreign shocks based on a structural time-varying bayesianVARwith a block-exogeneity hypothesis for a given pair of a large economy and a small open economy. The index is based on the sum of the responses of the small open...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012814956
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Business cycle volatility and globalization : a survey
Buch, Claudia M. - 2002
The globalization of capital and product markets has many implications for economic welfare. Countries can specialize in the production of goods for which they have comparative advantages, and capital is allocated more efficiently. However, one potentially adverse effect of globalization is the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474806
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Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers
Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; … - 2020
We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012178610
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Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers
Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; … - 2020 - This version: February 2020
We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170616
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Global vs. group-specific business cycles : the importance of defining the groups
Berger, Tino; Wortmann, Marcus - 2018
, most evidently in the industrialized world. The group-specific factors, on the other hand, play a much greater role for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011782436
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China's emergence in the world economy and business cycles in Latin America
Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Rebucci, … - 2012
world have altered the transmission mechanism of international business cycles to Latin America. Evidence based on a Global … world shows that the long-term impact of a China GDP shock on the typical Latin American economy has increased by three … associated with a deceleration in China's economic growth in the future for both Latin America and the rest of the world economy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009627525
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Regionalization vs. globalization
Hirata, Hideaki; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M. - 2013
Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009703626
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The global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks
Beutel, Johannes; Emter, Lorenz; Metiu, Norbert; … - 2022
the world. By tightening financial conditions globally, these shocks affect the left tail of the conditional output growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013459721
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Measuring synchronisation and convergence of business cycles
Koopman, Siem Jan; Azevedo, João Valle e - 2003
This paper investigates business cycle relations among different economies in theEuro area. Cyclical dynamics are explicitly modelled as part of a time series model. Weintroduce mechanisms that allow for increasing or diminishing phase shifts and for time-varyingassociation patterns in different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333890
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A new approach to infer changes in the synchronization of business cycle phases
Leiva-Leon, Danilo - 2014
This paper proposes a Markov-switching framework to endogenously identify the following: (1) regimes where economies synchronously enter recessionary and expansionary phases; and (2) regimes where economies are unsynchronized, essentially following independent business cycles. The reliability of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010401313