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Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic
Altig, Dave; Baker, Scott Brent; Barrero, Jose Maria; … - 2020
We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the United States and the UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty about future business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251406
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Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic
Altig, Dave; Baker, Scott Brent; Barrero, Jose Maria; … - 2020
We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the United States and the UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty about future business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012389586
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State-level economic policy uncertainty
Baker, Scott; Davis, Steven J.; Levy, Jeffrey A. - 2022
We quantify and study state-level economic policy uncertainty. Tapping digital archives for nearly 3,500 local newspapers, we construct three monthly indexes for each state: one that captures state and local sources of policy uncertainty (ΕPU-S), one that captures national and international...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013170258
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Economic policy uncertainty in the euro area: An unsupervised machine learning approach
Azqueta-Gavaldón, Andrés; Hirschbühl, Dominik; … - 2020
We model economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the four largest euro area countries by applying machine learning techniques to news articles. The unsupervised machine learning algorithm used makes it possible to retrieve the individual components of overall EPU endogenously for a wide range of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012389562
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Political referenda and investment: Evidence from Scotland
Azqueta-Gavaldon, Andres - 2020
We present evidence that referenda have a significant, detrimental outcome on investment. Employing an unsupervised machine learning algorithm over the period 2008-2017, we construct three important uncertainty indices underlying reports in the Scottish news media: Scottish independence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422065
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Political referenda and investment : evidence from Scotland
Azqueta-Gavaldon, Andres - 2020
We present evidence that referenda have a significant, detrimental outcome on investment. Employing an unsupervised machine learning algorithm over the period 2008-2017, we construct three important uncertainty indices underlying reports in the Scottish news media: Scottish independence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012212854
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Economic policy uncertainty in the euro area : an unsupervised machine learning approach
Azqueta-Gavaldón, Andrés; Hirschbühl, Dominik; … - 2020
We model economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the four largest euro area countries by applying machine learning techniques to news articles. The unsupervised machine learning algorithm used makes it possible to retrieve the individual components of overall EPU endogenously for a wide range of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012139754
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Using macro-financial models to simulate macroeconomic developments during the Covid-19 pandemic : the case of Albania
Skufi, Lorena; Gersl, Adam - 2022
The recent Covid-19 pandemic has increased the importance of properly forecasting macro-financial developments in turbulent times. Only a limited number of studies focus on how to employ macro-financial models to project key real and financial sector variables under large shocks and unusual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013389296
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The Heterogeneous Response of Real Estate Asset Prices to a Global Shock
Heiniger, Sandro; Koeniger, Winfried; Lechner, Michael - 2022
We estimate the transmission of the pandemic shock in 2020 to prices in the residential and commercial real estate market by causal machine learning, using new granular data at the municipal level for Germany. We exploit differences in the incidence of Covid infections or short-time work at the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236309
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Evaluating the effectiveness of policies against a pandemic
Alemán, Christian; Busch, Christopher; Ludwig, Alexander; … - 2020
approach is the insight that epidemic dynamics are best tracked over stages, rather than over time. We use a normalization … procedure that makes the pre-policy paths of the epidemic identical across regions. The procedure uncovers regional variation in … the stage of the epidemic at the time of policy implementation. This variation delivers clean identification of the policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012312986