Inflation Expectations survey perform relative to the random-walk forecast when it comes to predicting five financial variables …-walk forecast for the repo rate and Prague Interbank Offered Rate at the onemonth forecasting horizon. For the five-year and ten … horizons. For the CZE/EUR exchange rate, no statistically significant differences in forecast precision were found. …

-specific risk factors and use the joint conditional distribution of these components to obtain forecasts of future carry trade … returns. Our results suggest that the decomposition model produces higher forecast and directional accuracy than any of the … competing models. We show that the forecasting gains translate into economically and statistically significant (risk …

uncertainty, as reflected by greater timeliness with no loss in forecast accuracy. In contrast, analysts have greater difficulty … dealing with heightened market uncertainty, as both timeliness and forecast accuracy decline …

This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for … Bayesian VAR approach, we observe that effects on forecast errors of professionals turn out to be more significant compared to …

out-of-sample predictor for the dollar up to twelve quarters. Housing construction is negatively associated with risk …

financial crisis. To this end, we derive risk-neutral densities from the implied volatilities of FX options, which approximate … market expectations about exchange rate developments. Based on these risk-neutral density estimates, we then assess the out … also find that, for the Czech Republic and Poland, risk-neutral densities contain useful information on the direction of …

forecast levels. A country's proximity to the US, importance to the firm, and visibility, as well as availability of more … precise information about foreign country exposures, contribute to consensus forecast efficiency. We identify a dimension of … — and show that it contributes to forecast efficiency, accuracy, and informativeness and that it helps the analyst achieve …

This paper examines the evidence regarding predictability in the market risk premium using artificial neural networks … paper is the inclusion of the South African market risk premium to the forecasting exercise and its direct comparison with … US forecasting results. The market risk premium is defined as the expected rate of return on the market portfolio in …

portfolios in terms of portfolio risk. While optimal daily weights minimize portfolio risk, we find that portfolio turnover and …

less so. We confirm this prediction empirically for sell-side equity analysts' forecasts using a new measure of forecast …