frequently participate in the survey manage to significantly outperform the random-walk forecast. For the central bank's policy … rate, the market participants typically have a statistically significant higher forecast accuracy than the random …-walk forecast at the three-month horizon; however, at the two- and five-year horizons, the random-walk forecast typically outperform …

This paper evaluates aggregated survey forecasts with forecast horizons of 3, 12, and 24 months for the exchange rates … common forecast accuracy measures. Additionally, the rationality of the exchange rate predictions are assessed utilizing …

Inflation Expectations survey perform relative to the random-walk forecast when it comes to predicting five financial variables …-walk forecast for the repo rate and Prague Interbank Offered Rate at the onemonth forecasting horizon. For the five-year and ten … horizons. For the CZE/EUR exchange rate, no statistically significant differences in forecast precision were found. …

-specific risk factors and use the joint conditional distribution of these components to obtain forecasts of future carry trade … returns. Our results suggest that the decomposition model produces higher forecast and directional accuracy than any of the … competing models. We show that the forecasting gains translate into economically and statistically significant (risk …

strongly depend on economic releases being inflation- or growth-related. Yet, when forecasters fail to correctly forecast the …

uncertainty, as reflected by greater timeliness with no loss in forecast accuracy. In contrast, analysts have greater difficulty … dealing with heightened market uncertainty, as both timeliness and forecast accuracy decline …

This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for … Bayesian VAR approach, we observe that effects on forecast errors of professionals turn out to be more significant compared to …