Abstract This paper explores the use of heuristic search algorithms for modeling human decision making. It is shown that this algorithm is consistent with many observed behavioral regularities, and may help explain deviations from rational choice. The main insight is that the heuristic function...

We consider a decision maker who enjoys choosing from a varied set of alternatives. Building on behavioral evidence, we propose testable axioms which characterize preference for variety and provide a representation theorem. We go on to illustrate the potential effects of preference for variety...

Abstract Health impact simulation models are used to predict how a proposed policy or scenario will affect population health outcomes. These models represent the typically-complex systems that describe how the scenarios affect exposures to risk factors for disease or injury (e.g. air pollution...

We examine the traditional deterrence game between Challenger and Defender. We treat two variations of the game – the complete information game and the one-sided information game where the first mover, Challenger, is the uncertain player. We employ sequential decision theory to analyze the...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to understand the origins and nature of unexpected events that affect complex projects, by relying on a view of projects as social systems. The authors argue that the project relation to its environment is mediated by a model of this environment that is...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to deal with the appropriateness of using the Monte Carlo simulation as a technique to calculate risk in real estate development. Design/methodology/approach – The paper is divided into two interlinked segments. The first segment examines the general...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to clarify a number of important facts about info‐gap decision theory. Design/methodology/approach – Theorems are put forward to rebut claims made about info‐gap decision theory in papers published in this journal and elsewhere. Findings –...

Purpose – The US Government adopted the base realignment and closure (BRAC) to resolve the military, economic and political issue of excess base capacity. There have been five rounds of BRAC since 1988, and more are expected to come in the years ahead. The complexity of the closure and...

Purpose – The cost of retaining a customer is lower than that of obtaining a new one, so potential customer defection is an important issue in the fiercely competitive environment of electronic commerce. Accordingly, this paper aims to present a new way for gauging customer loyalty and...