Abstract In this paper we provide a simple locally interactive dynamic model of technology choice and output production. We assume a Cobb-Douglas type production function for two available technologies. The returns to technology 0 are not affected by local spillovers. Technology 1 is more...

The predictive accuracy of various econometric models, including random walks, vector-autoregressive and vector-error-correction models, are investigated using daily futures prices of four commodities (the S&P 500 index, treasury bonds, gold, and crude oil). All models are estimated using a...