Summary A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable...

Abstract This study compares industrial production and gross value added in volume terms in the euro area and euro area countries, because real GDP growth signals from industrial production growth might be misleading and earlier released industrial production growth is not one-to-one translated...

The effects of the minimum wage on employment in Western economies are relatively uncontroversial. The introduction of a minimum wage in Czechoslovakia at the start of the transition, and its increase one year later, gives the opportunity to evaluate to what extent its effects on employment seem...

This paper employs a Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroske‐dasticity in Mean (GARCH‐M) model to consider the effect of macroeconomic factors on Australian property returns over the period 1985 to 2002. Three direct (office, retail and industrial property) and two indirect (listed...

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline Project (TANAP) on industrial production in Turkey. The TANAP is a project which ensures the security of the country’s natural gas supply and encourages a decrease in energy prices. So,...

Summary Diba and Grossman (1987) demonstrated that the conception of a rational bubble as defined by Blanchard and Watson (1982) is impossible. The present paper shows that this impossibility theorem also applies under various imperfections and irrationalities. These are: sticky goods prices,...