Using a real-time data set for German GDP over the period from 1973 to 1998 we calculate various measures of real-time output gaps and use these to calibrate and estimate Taylor-type reaction functions for the Bundesbank. Most of the reaction functions we find fit the Bundesbank's actual policy,...

This paper has two aims. First, it provides simple theoretical models that highlight two channels whereby monetary shocks have permanent real effects and the interactions between these channels. Second, it presents an empirical dynamic model, covering a panel of EU countries, and derives the...

In the second part of the 80s, Japan was under political pressure to expand aggregate demand. It followed suit in increasing its money supply. This caused severe inflation and the financial bubble which collapsed in 1990 resulting in capital losses and in a sizable loss of GDP. This paper draws...

National borders substantially matter in passenger air traffic. Empirical estimates based upon a new data set on domestic and international departures from German airports indicate that the German border reduces air traffic activity by a factor of four to five. This result adds a further piece...

This paper studies optimal monetary policy with the nominal interest rate as the single policy instrument in an economy,where firms set prices in a staggered way without indexation and real money balances contribute separately to households'utility. The optimal deterministic steady state under...

In this paper we propose a novel methodology to analyze optimal policies under model uncertainty in micro-founded macroeconomic models. As an application we assess the relevant sources of uncertainty for the optimal conduct of monetary policy within (parameter uncertainty) and across models...

This paper proposes a model that links households and firms, as usual, by markets for factors and goods and, additionally, by a banking sector that channels households' funds to firms and eliminates idiosyncratic risk. In equilibrium, agency costs and tax benefits of corporate debt are...

This paper analyses whether interest rate paths in the EMU member countries would have been different if the previous national central banks had not handed over monetary policy to the ECB. Using estimates of monetary policy reaction functions over the last 20 years before the formation of EMU,...