Eastern Germany's recovery from the unification shock has been characterized by deep structural change - with apparent repercussions for the West as well - and an integration process involving both capital deepening (extensive and intensive investment) and labor thinning (net out-migration). I...

In the ideal Black-Scholes world, financial time series are assumed 1) stationary (time homogeneous) and 2) having conditionally normal distribution given the past. These two assumptions have been widely-used in many methods such as the RiskMetrics, one risk management method considered as...

A huge body of empirical and theoretical literature has emerged on the relationship between foreign exchange (FX) uncertainty and international trade. Empirical findings about the impact of FX uncertainty on trade figures are at best weak and often ambiguous with respect to its direction. Almost...

We introduce a multivariate multiplicative error model which is driven by componentspecific observation driven dynamics as well as a common latent autoregressive factor. The model is designed to explicitly account for (information driven) common factor dynamics as well as idiosyncratic effects...

Integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) models represent a promising new class of models which merge classic choice models with the structural equation approach (SEM) for latent variables. Despite their conceptual appeal, to date applications of ICLV models in marketing are still rare. The...

According to housing investment models, house prices and replacement cost should have an equilibrating relationship. Previous empirical work - mainly based on aggregate-level data - has found only little evidence of such a relationship. By using a unique data set, covering transactions of...

This paper studies how national sentiment in the form of either a perception or a loyalty bias of bettors may affect pricing patterns on national wagering markets for international sport events. We show theoretically that both biases can be profitably exploited by bookmakers by way of price...

We present an object-oriented software framework allowing to specify, solve, and estimate nonlinear dynamic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. The implemented solution methods for finding the unknown policy function are the standard linearization around the deterministic steady state, and a...

We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. By empirically discriminating between competing sources of this return predictability...

Comparing groups with respect to hypothetical constructs requires that the measurement models are equal across groups. Otherwise conclusions drawn from the observed indicators regarding differences at the latent level (mean differences, differences in the structural relations) might be severly...