Over the next few years, the U.S. will attempt to reduce the budget deficit and unemployment by way of an expansive monetary policy, a goal that is likely to be achieved. Moreover, the U.S. will succeed in maintaining an undervalued exchange rate for the dollar. Under these circumstances, the...

Changes in nominal interest rates have a larger impact on the distribution of income in non-financial business than changes in wages. If the rate of interest rises from, say, 5 percent to 8 percent, then interest payments on bank loans (taken up at variable interest rates) will go up by 60...

Between 1982 and 1986, the weaker European currencies were devalued substantially in a number of realignments. At the same time, consumer prices and unit labor costs in the countries concerned rose above average, making for a decline in the real effective exchange rate by only 1½ percent p.a.,...

Following a marked slowdown in the period 1973/1985 world economic growth has gained momentum since the mid-eighties. The faster pace is expected to be maintained throughout the forecasting period. Assuming interest rates, exchange rates, and raw material prices to remain broadly stable world...

With interest rates kept low and taxes strongly reduced, monetary and fiscal policies in the USA are expected to remain on an expansive course in 2004. This will strengthen the economic upswing but will also accentuate the disequilibria in the US economy: in 2004, both the budget deficit and the...

The study analyses the interaction between the trading behaviour of 1,024 moving average and momentum models and the fluctuations of the yen/dollar exchange rate. The paper shows first that these models would have exploited exchange rate trends quite profitably between 1976 and 1999, and then...

Against the background of the dramatic aggravation of the financial crisis the world economy is in a downturn. After four years of strong economic growth the economy already cooled down in 2007. World trade has expanded only marginally in recent months. A further weakening in 2009 is already...

The strong recovery of the world economy since 1985 is likely to continue into the early nineties. Assumig some weakening in the dollar exchange rate, relatively low dollar interest rates, and moderate world inflation, world trade volumes are projected to expand by 6½ percent p. a. until 1994....