The strong recovery of the world economy since 1985 is likely to continue into the early nineties. Assumig some weakening in the dollar exchange rate, relatively low dollar interest rates, and moderate world inflation, world trade volumes are projected to expand by 6½ percent p. a. until 1994....

The forecast is based on the premise that both the crude oil price and the euro exchange rate will climb to their highest levels in 2005, after which they will fall off again. Accordingly, crude oil (Brent) should cost 42 $ per barrel in 2005 and go down to 36 $ by 2007. The euro exchange rate...

The West German economy is forecasted to grow by slightly less than 1½ percent per year until 1998; the restrictive stance of both monetary and fiscal policies will depress economic activity not only in 1994 and 1995 but also will tend to reduce the medium-term growth potential. Activity in other...

Any projection of global economic developments up to 2005 will greatly depend on an assessment of a number of problem areas: • Will the oil price, after first rising at a breakneck pace, drop again significantly, or will it stay at its high level over the medium run? • Will the imbalances...

Currently the euro has a purchasing power parity (PPP) of 0.865 vis-à-vis the dollar based on tradables: a basket of internationally traded manufactured goods and tourist services which costs 1 € in the euro zone, comes at 0.865 $ in the USA. In view of an exchange rate of 0.958 $ and based...

Variations in nominal interest rates have a larger impact on the distribution of income in the corporate sector than changes in wages. If the interest rate rises from, say, 5 percent to 8 percent, then interest payments on loans (taken up at variable interest rates) will go up by 60 percent...

The medium-term outlook for the world economy starts from the following assumptions: The US dollar will continue to depreciate against the euro until 2008 and will then stabilise. More specifically, the euro exchange rate is assumed to rise to 1.42 $ until 2008, primarily as a result of a...

This paper investigates how technical trading systems exploit the momentum and reversal effects in the S&P 500 spot and futures market. When based on daily data, the profitability of 2,580 technical models has steadily declined since 1960, and has been unprofitable since the early 1990s....