This paper analyzes the inflation forecast errors over the period 2021Q1-2022Q3 using forecasts of core and headline … inflation from the International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook for a large group of advanced and emerging market … information. Focusing on core inflation forecast errors in 2021, four factors provide a potential ex post explanation: a stronger …

This paper investigates the impact of fiscal shocks on inflation, using a large panel of 139 countries over the period … 1970-2021. First, both headline and core measures of inflation increase in response to expansionary shifts in the fiscal … with care in aggregate demand management as it has significant effects on inflation, which are highly dependent on fiscal …

Does inflation help improve public finances? This paper documents the dynamic responses of fiscal variables to an … inflation shock, using both quarterly and annual panel data for a broad set of economies. Inflation shocks are estimated to … improve fiscal balances temporarily, as nominal revenues track inflation closely, while nominal primary expenditures take …

What is the impact of climate change on inflation and growth dynamics? This is not a simple question to answer as … climate-related shocks affect inflation and economic growth also depends on long-run scarring in the economy and the country … investigate how climate shocks, as measured by climate-induced natural disasters, influence inflation and economic growth in a …

Inflation in low-income countries is often high and volatile, driven by external shocks. In addition, inflation in … stability. We estimate the drivers of inflation in Guinea since the early 2000s, a period in which the country suffered major … shocks from pandemics, commodity price movements, and multiple military coups, and during which inflation averaged 12 percent …

. China's recent reopening has paved the way for a faster-than-expected recovery. Global inflation is expected to fall to 6 …

impacts of indexation on fiscal outcomes during episodes of inflation surprises; and an analysis of the association between … the overall degree of indexation combining the four budget items and inflation persistence …

The COVID-19 pandemic altered consumption patterns significantly in a short period of time. However, official inflation … Germany, we document how consumption patterns changed and we quantify the resulting inflation bias. We find that consumers … experienced a higher level of inflation at the beginning of the pandemic than what a fixed-weight inflation (or the official …