Recovery from the deepest recession in 60 years has started. But sustaining it will require delicate rebalancing acts, both within and across countries. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard writes in our lead article that the turnaround will not be simple. The crisis has left deep scars that...

This paper proposes a methodology for testing whether capital flows to developing countries are determined by economic fundamentals or by purely speculative forces. We use the intertemporal optimizing approach to current account determination as our benchmark for judging the behavior of capital...

Despite the growing support for market-oriented strategies, and for a greater role of private investment, empirical growth models for developing countries typically make no distinction between the private and public components of investment. This paper sheds some light on this important issue by...

This paper studies the apparent contradictions between two strands of the literature on the effects of financial intermediation on economic activity. On the one hand, the empirical growth literature finds a positive effect of financial depth as measured by, for instance, private domestic credit...

This paper highlights selected recent developments in the economies of sub-Saharan Africa. It notes that the outlook for commodity prices has improved, and with it the outlook for economic activity beyond 1994; it also notes, however, the need for higher savings and investment to sustain growth over...

Using a VAR approach, this paper studies the relationship between money, output, and prices in a group of Pacific Basin countries that underwent financial sector reform during the 1980s: Indonesia, Korea, and the Philippines. Special attention is paid to assessing the information content of...

This paper investigates the economic impact of a coordinated reduction in military expenditures of 20 percent using a specially modified version of the MULTIMOD world economic model. Simulation results indicate that in developing countries the present value of consumption increases by 46 percent...

A robust empirical determinant of long-term economic growth in many developing countries has been the expansion and diversification of the export sector. The latter, in turn, has been influenced by capital accumulation and economic growth. The growth model developed here explores this...

This paper discusses three important extensions to the developing country scenario and adjustment model used in the World Economic Outlook exercises. First, the model is augmented to include fiscal and monetary sectors and now explicitly captures links among government policy, investment, output...

Recent success of the Spanish economy is frequently attributed to the benefits from economic integration into the European Community, which Spain joined in 1986. By contrast, this paper takes the view that, to a large extent, the origins of success may be traced back to earlier years and that...