This paper examines the links between fiscal policy, capital inflows, and the real exchange rate in Turkey since the late 1980s. After an overview of recent macroeconomic developments in Turkey, a vector autoregression model is estimated linking government spending, interest rate differentials,...

Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has a number of institutional implications for the transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe and selected Mediterranean countries that aspire to join the European Union (EU). After describing the current institutional framework for their relations with...

Improved macroeconomic conditions and changes to the asset-liability structure on Turkish balance sheets since the 2001 crisis have improved Turkey''s overall sovereign risk profile. Nonetheless, the country remains subject to bouts of volatility, as evidenced most recently in the May/June 2006...

This paper evaluates Turkey’s Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). Since the completion of the Article IV Consultation and the first review in April 2002, macroeconomic policies have remained in line with the program. All quantitative performance criteria for end-March and...

The key policy challenge for Turkey in the years ahead will be to enhance and consolidate the advances made since the nation’s 2000-01 economic crisis. Higher growth could reduce unemployment and raise living standards toward European Union levels. This paper reviews Turkey’s policy...

This paper contains an empirical analysis of currency substitution in Turkey: a simple relationship between the share of foreign currency holdings in M2X on one side and movements in the exchange rate or inflation on the other is derived from a two-stage portfolio choice model. This relationship...

This 2011 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Turkish economy continued to grow strongly through the first half of 2011, reaping the benefits of institutional reforms and revamped policy frameworks implemented in the previous decade. However, growth became increasingly fueled by domestic...

This paper reviews economic developments in Turkey during 1992–95. Economic activity expanded sharply in 1993, sustained by buoyant domestic demand that was underpinned by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, but accompanied by a large deterioration in the current account position. The...

This paper reviews economic developments in Turkey during 1994–97. Real wages increased rapidly during 1989–93, dropped sharply in 1994–95, and have since recovered modestly. Real wage flexibility stems in part from the absence of widespread wage indexation, despite chronic high inflation....

The period following the 2000-01 crisis was marked by a successful disinflation program sustained through inflation targeting and fiscal discipline in Turkey. This paper studies the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on credit growth during this period. Using quarterly bank-level data...