We propose a common factor approach to analyse convergence, which we implement using principal components analysis. This technique has not been used to analyse convergence of time series but is shown to provide a useful new tool. We show how it is in many ways a more natural way of approaching...

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) specifies a relationship between inflation and a forcing variable and the current period’s expectation of future inflation. Most empirical estimates of the NKPC, typically based on Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation, have found a significant...

This paper proposes and analyses the Kullback-Leibler information criterion (KLIC) as a unified statistical tool to evaluate, compare and combine density forecasts. Use of the KLIC is particularly attractive, as well as operationally convenient, given its equivalence with the widely used...

This paper argues that the production constraints in the basic NAIRU model should be distinguished by type: capital constraints and labour constraints. It notes the failure to incorporate this phenomenon in standard macro models. Using panel data for UK manufacturing over 80 quarters we show...

This paper argues that the production constraints in the basic NAIRU model should be distinguished by type: capital constraints and labour constraints. It notes the failure to incorporate this phenomenon in standard macro models. Using panel data for UK manufacturing over eighty quarters it is...

Economic models for assessing costs of greenhouse gas abatement can be classified as macroeconomic (top-down) models or micro (bottom-up) models. As yet little attention has been focused on the modelling of developing countries. This paper proposes a methodology for integrating the two...

There is a range of formal approaches to the modelling of policy responses. This paper will give a very short summary of the broad approaches, which are currently used, then a new approach will be proposed. The main objective of this paper is to explain the motivation and workings of a new...

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of exchange rate uncertainty in determining foreign direct R&D investment into the UK. Specifically, we examine the impact of the UKs possible entry into EMU, where we exploit the fact that on entry the covariance of the Euro and sterling will...