Anyfantakis, Costas; Caporale, Guglielmo M.; Pittis, Nikitas - Department of Economics and Finance Research and … - 2004
This paper uses Monte Carlo techniques to assess the loss in terms of forecast accuracy which is incurred when the true DGP exhibits parameter instability which is either overlooked or incorrectly modelled. We find that the loss is considerable when a FCM is estimated instead of the true TVCM,...