Models-in-the-minds about the proper and right way to be a true friend or to do family behaviour may not necessarily fit lived experience, especially in cases where relationships become fused and distinctions between family and friend become blurred.. We suggest the idea of a personal community...

This paper analyzes and quantifies the idea of model risk in the environment of internal model building. We define various types of model risk including estimation risk, model risk in distribution and model risk in functional form. By the quantification of these concepts we analyze the impact of...

The output multiplier turns negative before a deficit spending program expires. We show the generality of this unpleasant finding for the standard real business cycle model. We then calibrate an extended model for the US and demonstrate how fiscal stimulus slows down economic recovery from...

We present a stochastic version of the single-level, multi-product dynamic lotsizing problem subject to a capacity constraint. A production schedule has to be determined for random demand so that expected costs are minimized and a constraint based on a new backlog-oriented -service-level measure...

We study the empirical behaviour of semi-parametric log-periodogram estimation for long memory models when the true process exhibits a change in persistence. Simulation results confirm theoretical arguments which suggest that evidence for long memory is likely to be found. A recently proposed...

Determining good parameter estimates in ESTAR models is known to be diffcult. We show that the phenomena of getting strongly biased estimators is a consequence of the so-called identifcation problem, the problem of properly distinguishing the transition function in relation to extreme parameter...

Previous research on optimal R& D subsidies has focussed on the long run. This paper characterizes the optimal time path of R& D subsidization in a semi- endogenous growth model, by exploiting a recently developed numerical method. Starting from the steady state under current R& D subsidization...

We examine the asymptotic behavior of unit root tests against nonlinear alternatives of the exponential smooth transition type if the data is erroneously nonlinearly transformed. We show analytically and by a Monte Carlo study that the probability of rejecting the correct null of a random walk...