Measuring and displaying uncertainty around path-forecasts, i.e. forecasts made in period T about the expected trajectory of a random variable in periods T+1 to T+H is a key ingredient for decision making under uncertainty. The probabilistic assessment about the set of possible trajectories that...

Investor's psychological and emotional factors lead to irrationality in financial decision making and anomalies in prices. Investor sentiment and psychology help to elucidate phenomena in financial markets that cannot be explained by traditional theory. The aim of this study is two-fold: it...

Since the 1980s, economists have argued that the slope of the yield curve - the spread between long- and short-term interest rates - is a good predictor of future economic activity. While much of the existing research has documented how consistently movements in the curve have signaled past...