This paper applies new diagnostics to the Bank of England's pioneering density forecasts (fan charts). We compute their implicit probability forecast for annual rates of inflation and output growth that exceed a given threshold (in this case, the target inflation rate and 2.5% respectively.)...

We investigate the forecasting ability of the most commonly used benchmarks in financial economics. We approach the main methodological caveats of probabilistic forecasts studies – small samples, limited models and non-holistic validations – by performing a comprehensive comparison of 15...

We investigate the forecasting ability of the most commonly used benchmarks in financial economics. We approach the usual caveats of probabilistic forecasts studies – small samples, limited models and non-holistic validations – by performing a comprehensive comparison of 15 predictive...

This paper compares and assesses the income inequality between five European countries in the mid 1990's, employing the non-parametric technique of kernel density estimation. The countries used in this inequality exercise were Germany, Hungary, Luxembourg, Poland and the United Kingdom, and the...