This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies, we use output gaps estimated with unrevised real-time GDP data. This exercise assumes an information set similar to that available to a policymaker at a given point in time...

The U.K. economy is on the mend, but crisis-related scars still need healing. The challenge ahead will be to ensure sustainable recovery and balance sheet repair while remaining flexible to respond to shocks. A highly accommodative monetary stance is required to offset the contractionary impulse...

This paper estimates the extent of spare capacity in the U.K. economy using a range of methodologies pointing to an output gap and the behavior of inflation during large output gaps. The usefulness of fiscal rules in supporting fiscal consolidation is generally positive, and a more permanent...

Using data from the US, UK, Japan and Canada, this paper provides evidence on the benefits to an economy from ""multiple avenues of intermediation"". The overall conclusion is that the existence of active securities markets alongside banks is indeed beneficial to the stability of corporate...

The paper assesses the United Kingdom''s golden rule and debt rule against ""ideal characteristics"" of fiscal rules. It concludes that they are clearly defined; transparent in institutional arrangements and measurement; adequate to ensure sustainability; and strike a good balance between...

The main objective of this paper is to identify a set of leading indicators of inflation for the United Kingdom, and discuss the conceptual issues pertaining to inflation targeting. The main conclusions are that narrow money has strong leading indicator properties for inflation, while broad...

This paper deals with hysteresis in the desired equilibrium exchange rate (DEER) arising from misalignment. When the actual real exchange rate departs from its DEER value, current account realizations--and consequently, debt service obligations--will differ from those assumed in the initial DEER...

This paper examines and compares the instruments and procedures currently employed by the central banks of France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States for implementing monetary policy in the short run. The analysis indicates that the monetary authorities of these five...

In April 1990, the U.K. Government implemented the largest change to local authority finance in England and Wales since the postwar period. It involves the introduction of a poll tax on domestic residents, the centralization of local business taxes, and an overhaul of Central Government grants....

This paper examines whether the clarity of central bank communication about inflation has changed with the economic environment. We use readability statistics and content analysis to study the clarity of communication on the inflation outlook by seven central banks between 1997 and 2010....