Global current account balances-the overall size of current account deficits and surpluses-continued to widen in 2021 to 3.5 percent of world GDP, and are expected to widen again this year. The IMF's multilateral approach suggests that global excess balances narrowed to 0.9 percent of world GDP...

While standard demand factors perform well in predicting historical trade patterns, they fail conspicuously in 2020, when pandemic-specific factors played a key role above and beyond demand. Prediction errors from a multilateral import demand model in 2020 vary systematically with the health...

This paper uses granular customs data from France to investigate propagation of the COVID-19 shock along the supply chains in 2020. It quantifies the effect of the COVID-19 shock on trade adjustment and identifies mitigating and amplifying factors contributing to French firms' heterogeneous...

Contents: The handbook of globalisation: introduction and overview / Jonathan Michie -- Part I: Globalisation in Question? -- 1. The future of globalisation / Paul Hirst and Grahame Thompson -- 2. Financial globalization?: history, conditions and prospects / Grahame Thompson -- 3. The scope and...

Recommended readings (Machine generated): 1. Gary Gereffi, John Humphrey and Timothy Sturgeon (2005), 'The Governance of Global Value Chains', Review of International Political Economy, 12 (1), February, 78-104 -- 2. Gary Gereffi (1999), 'International Trade and Industrial Upgrading in the...

This paper studies the potential effects of geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) in the sub-Saharan Africa region (SSA) through quantifying potential long-term economic costs. The paper considers two alternative GEF scenarios in which trade relations are fully or partially curtailed across world...

Do political regimes determine how geopolitics influence international trade? This paper provides an empirical answer to the question by analyzing the joint impact of democracy and geopolitical distance between countries with an augmented gravity model of bilateral trade flows and an extensive...