We estimate the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty in the United States, combining … theory-consistent and narrative sign restrictions in Bayesian SVARs. We find mostly adverse consequences of protectionism, in …

We derive a simple equation for the welfare gains from trade when tariffs are liberalized or iceberg trade costs fall … the analysis of Arkolakis, Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2012) to encompass revenue-generating import tariffs. Our formula … countries with relatively high status quo tariffs, our formula predicts 30-60\% larger gains from trade than the icebergs only …