Business cycle duration changes over time, generating time-varying investor concern over future recessions. This paper introduces ex-ante measures of recession concern based on term structure of recession probability forecasts by the Survey of Professional Forecasters. The slope of the recession...

This paper explores time series momentum in fixed income securities. Almost all countries in our large sample of 28 advanced and emerging markets have statistically significant positive time series momentum strategy returns. Shorter maturity fixed income securities have greater momentum returns...

Safe asset shortages can expose the economy to liquidity traps. The nature of these traps is determined by the cyclicality of the bond premium. Self-fulfilling liquidity traps are associated with a counter-cyclical bond premium. Small issuances of government debt crowd out private debt and...

In early May 2018, The Wall Street Journal asked professional forecasters to predict when the next recession would begin. Nearly 6 in 10 answered that the next recession will begin sometime in 2020. If so, the current business expansion will have eclipsed the 1991-2001 expansion as the longest...

In this paper, we investigate the ability of two popular models to forecast the deviation of GDP from its long-run trend, i.e. inflationary and output gaps. In doing so, we exploit the information provided by the yield curve that is documented in the literature as a good predictor of economic...

We develop a structural credit risk model to examine how the interactions of liquidity and default risk affect corporate bond pricing. By explicitly modeling debt rollover and by endogenizing the holding costs via collateralized financing, our model generates rich links between liquidity risk...