We argue that the Great Inflation experienced by both the United Kingdom and the United States in the 1970s has an … common doctrine underlying the systematic monetary policy choices in each country. The nonmonetary approach to inflation …

-sample estimation. In contrast to Orphanides (2002, 2003), I find that the Fed's response to the real-time forecast of inflation was … (2000). However, the response to inflation was strong before 1973 and gradually regained strength from the early 1980's …

-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years … unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since …

horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation …