We examine U.S. housing price forecastability using principal component analysis (PCA), partial least squares (PLS), and sparse PLS (SPLS). We incorporate information from a large panel of 128 economic time series and show that macroeconomic fundamentals have strong predictive power for future...

The 2006 sudden and immense downturn in U.S. House Prices sparked the 2007 global financial crisis and revived the interest about forecasting such imminent threats for economic stability. In this paper we propose a novel hybrid forecasting methodology that combines the Ensemble Empirical Mode...

The understanding of house price expectations formation is quite limited in the housing literature. This is the first paper to rigorously test the rationality of expectations of house price change using survey data. Using a panel dataset of the Wall Street Journal economic forecasting survey...

In this research note we report on our current efforts on developing a leading indicator of housing prices that could be used to forecast housing prices. Specifically we use Google search index at city level to predict Case-Shiller index. The methodology is based on Granger causality where we...

We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away...