In this paper, we develop a monthly output index for the U.S. transportation sector from January 1980 through April 2002, covering air, rail, water, truck, transit, and pipeline activities. Separate indices for freight and passenger are also constructed. Our total transportation output index...

In this paper we present an evaluation of forecasts of a vector of variables of the German economy made by different institutions. Our method permits one to evaluate the forecasts for each year and then if one is interested to combine the years. We use our method to determine an overall winner...

We develop a monthly output index of the U.S. Transportation sector over 1980:1-2002:4 covering air, rail, water, truck, transit and pipeline activities. Separate indices for freight and passenger are also constructed. Our total transportation output index matches very well with the annual...

In this paper we present a multivariate analysis of the Federal Reserve’s forecasts. First, we evaluate the Fed’s forecasts of the ten major expenditure categories of real GDP. Second, we present a new methodology for evaluating multivariate forecasts. Finally, we use the same methodology to...

This paper presents a new approach to evaluating multiple economic forecasts. In the past, evaluations have focused on the forecasts of individual variables. However, many macroeconomic variables are forecast at the same time and are used together to describe the state of the economy. It is,...

Forecasts for the current year that are made sometime during the current year are not true annual forecasts because they include already known information for the early part of the year. The current methodology that evaluates these ¡°forecasts¡± does not take into account the known...

In this paper we jointly evaluate the Federal Reserve staff forecasts of U.S. real output growth and the inflation rate assuming the forecasts are to be used as inputs for the Taylor rule. Our simple methodology generates “policy forecast errors” which have a direct interpretation for the...

It is generally believed that the recession of 2007-2009 was not foreseen by business economists. Is this perceived view accurate? We explore this issue by examining business economists’ published statements about economic conditions. We compare these qualitative forecasts with the Beige Book....

In this paper we examine the quality of the initial estimates of the components of both real and nominal U.S. GDP. We introduce a number of new statistics for measuring the magnitude of changes in the components from the initial estimates available one month after the end of the quarter to the...

In this paper we examine the quality of the initial estimates of headline GDP and 10 major components of both real and nominal U.S. GDP. We ask a number of questions about various characteristics of the differences between the initial estimates available one month after the end of the quarter to...