The term "middle income trap"' has been widely used in the literature, without having been clearly defined or formally tested. We propose a statistical definition of a middle income trap and derive a simple time-series test. We find that the concept survives a rigorous scrutiny of the data, with...

To what extent did outbreaks of bubonic plague disrupt daily economic activity? We estimate the impact of epidemics on regional markets over four centuries – from the Black Death in the 14th century, until the medieval form of the plague became extinct in the 17th century. Despite the extreme...