This paper applies multi-equation cointegration methodology to the short-term interest rate series of European Monetary System (EMS) member countries during the period from March 1979 to July 1998. The objective of the paper is to measure the degree to which the interest rates of EMS member...

In Kawalec and Pytlarczyk (2013), we argue that the single European currency constitutes a serious threat to the European Union and the Single European Market, and we propose a controlled dismantlement of the Eurozone. In this paper, we undertake a deeper analysis of the measures which would...

An empirical model of time-varying realignment risk in an exchange rate target zone is developed. Expected rates of devaluation are estimated as the difference between interest race differentials and estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band, using French...

This paper reconsiders the 1992-3 crisis in the European Monetary System in light of its emerging market successors. That episode was a predecessor of the Mexican and Asian crises in the sense that both capital movements and domestic financial fragility placed important roles. The output effects...

The strategy for the adoption of the euro in the Czech Republic involves the entry of the Czech koruna into the ERM II mechanism for only the essential amount of time (approximately 2½ years). No date has yet been set for the introduction of the euro. The situation may, however, arise where it...

This paper develops and estimates a model of the time at which market participants expected the French franc to be devalued relative to the German deutschemark during the early years of the European Monetary System. The model assumes that the expected time of exchange rate realignment is...

The Road to Monetary Union analyses in non-technical language the process leading to adoption of a common currency for the European Union. The monetary union process involved different issues at different times and the contemporary global background mattered. The Element explains why monetary...